The spook factor

Major indexes and sectors struggle under their averages.

But with selling volume potentially drying up there’s a bit of hope for the Bulls to finish the year strong.

The Follow Through Day (FTD) from two weeks ago tells us that institutions were willing to step in and support the market.

While all major rallies begin with FTD’s, not all FTD’s signify a major rally.

There’s still plenty of reason to sell this market.

To put it bluntly, this tape sucks.

What we mean by ‘tape’ is news, and more importantly, the market’s reaction to news.

The Fed’s action last week was poorly received.

Not even a rate cut or “special” lending program with foreign banks could inspire buying.

The “special” lending program to inject liquidity into the banking system left many thinking The Fed is uncoordinated, and trying to do what it can to save the market.

When markets are bad hope always lies on the Fed, and when the Fed begins to look bad it only makes matters worse.

And the worst matter of course is the credit markets.

The fact that the amount of losses from mortgages and CDO’s is unknown is a major concern.

Most of the major banks continue to fumble around the issue with lack of transparency.

Anytime uncertainty factors in, markets get spooked.

The Financial’s are just off the lows of the year and pointing down.

Other key sectors such as Semiconductors, Retail and Transportation are also struggling well below the major moving averages.

We’ve relied heavily on our price and volume indicators for guidance, but right now we have to recognize that our one hope with an FTD appears to be on its way to being rubbed out.

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