Archive for October, 2009|Monthly archive page

Letting The Market Do Its Thing

spx_weekly

Looks like Mr. Market is ready to peg another high.

Traders have long been calling this the most hated rally on Wall Street.

While four-year old could tell you the market will eventually trade down, it’s another thing to be right on just when it happens.

We’re still staying the course and letting the market do its thing before jumping on again.

What We Were Anticipating

Distribution!

Distribution!

Both the Dow and S&P 500 notched in Distribution Days after making new highs.

This is what we were anticipating.

It’s an extended market in a traditionally tricky month.

A couple more distribution days, where volume exceeds the previous day on a down day, and we might change our bias to SELL>

When We Don’t Trade

spx_weekly

Second accumulation day in a row.

Bulls are sticking it to the shorts.

It’s rarely easy shorting.

Question is will new highs on the S&P 500 be able to be sustained?

We doubt it. But won’t argue if it happens.

When things are this uncertain we don’t trade.

No Telling If It Will Stick

spx_weekly

Not much to make of the market’s rally as the major indexes bounce off their 50-day averages.

Heavy selling set a new tone a couple weeks ago.

We’re more inclined to think institutions are more defensive than aggressive these days.

But we don’t want to ignore the fact that it’s still a dominant uptrend.

We could very easily see new highs in here. But there’s no telling if they’d stick.

Volume Nearly Always Precludes Price-Action

Kicking off October...

Kicking off October...

October has kicked off with a bang.

heavy-volume selling has hit just about all the major indexed and sectors, with the exception of the S&P 500…

We thought we’d see this in September, but have been seeing the warning signs via heavy selling for some time.

Volume nearly always precludes price-action.

What we’re looking for now is pullbacks to the 50-day averages.

For the S&P, that’s the 1020 zone…