Archive for November, 2009|Monthly archive page

Something More Convincing

spx_weekly

What looked like it would be a bounce at the 50-day moving average has turned into a run into higher ground for the year on the S&P 500.

If it don’t sell it rallies.

Now is not the time to play shorts.

Wait for more convincing reversal action – like a blow off top…

Seller Dominance

spx_weekly

Big move up, low volume.

We still say this market looks like it’s tired and wants to sell.

Market tops can take time to form. It’s not like a switch that suddenly turns.

Often it takes a few moves to shake out the confidence of shorts before things move south.

Our short bias is backed by weakness in the Semiconductors, which have led the sell-off for three weeks and are more convincingly under their 50-day moving averages.

We’ve also seen a dominance of selling volume across all the indexes in recent weeks.