Archive for May, 2010|Monthly archive page

Stage Set For Buyers

Buyers look up as global panic eases, for the moment.

For a week that saw the major indexes mostly flat, the effect of negative news on the market, such as credit- ratings downgrades of Greece, Portugal and Spain, gives speculators some indication the worst may be priced in.

Sharp rallies from U.S. stocks, after hitting and undercutting key support levels last week, such as the S&P 500 testing its low of the year and the Dow regaining its psychological 10,000 mark after a dip below, coincided with an announcement from China that it wouldn’t dump its European holdings. Whether it was the levels or the announcement that triggered the surge is for you to decide.

After the Dow put in its worst May in 70 years, down 7.92%, where we go from here depends largely on how much selling pressure remains.

Bullish hammer bars on the weekly charts of the majority of stock sectors gives the market an encouraging near-term look. (See Technically Speaking below.) If the stage is set for rally, we’ll need the commitment of institutions for anything enduring to take place.

Until we get confirmation through volume that institutional buyers are willing to load up at these prices, we’re sticking to our Sell Bias. The multiple Distribution Days that turned us into bears several weeks ago will need to be countered by a Follow Through Day (FTD) to signal a reversal.

The longstanding FTD indicator, made popular by William O’Neal of Investors Business Daily, calls for at least one of the major indexes rallying at least 1.7% on volume greater than the day before. This signal has accompanied every major bull leg. But not every FTD has led to a new bull run.

Any bounce without an FTD would would likely lead to another selling opportunity. The scenario might look something like this:

Odds of the market hitting new lows this year weigh heavy with statistics-backed research, such as John Hussman’s Aunt Minnies, that suggest a bigger market correction is in the works. The scenario fits well with the a monthly Dow chart going back 15 years, where another bearish head-and-shoulder pattern looms.

Investors Intelligence’s Bull/Bear ratio of 1.35 has also tilted to the Bears, and would have further to drop to hit its traditional extremes of below .80, where capitulation would likely take place.

The landscape for our beloved Growth Stocks, which serve as indicators themselves, also confirms the bigger bearish picture with low numbers of quality stocks setting up in technical bases and breaking out. While we do have some encouraging names to follow, it’s pretty much a tight market.

Dan,

thegrowthstockreport.com

Technically Speaking

Market Bias
Seller’s Edge

Key sectors attempting bounces from support levels bode well for a bounce.


Strong trends are often marked with confirmation from semiconductors (SMH), retail (XRT), financials (XLF) and transportation (IYT), which all possess similar chart characteristics this week.
Last weeks breakdown through key support for broker dealers (IAI) looks as if the signal was canceled by the rally.

Major Indexes – ETFs

Sectors – ETFs


Four-Week Volume Trend

News To Watch This Week

Earnings:

  • MONDAY – Memorial Day
  • TUESDAY – none
  • WEDNESDAY – Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV), Shoe Carnival (SCVL)
  • THURSDAY – America’s Car-Mart, Inc. (CRMT), Joy Global Inc. (JOYG), Quiksilver (ZQK), Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. (ULTA), Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods OJSC (WBD)
  • FRIDAY – China Medical Technologies, Inc. (CMED)

Economic:

  • MONDAY – Memorial Day
  • TUESDAY – Construction Spending, ISM Index
  • WEDNESDAY – Pending Home Sales, Crude Inventories, Auto Sales, Truck Sales
  • THURSDAY – ADP Employment Change, Productivity-Rev., Unit Labor Costs, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Factory Orders, ISM Services
  • FRIDAY – Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek

The Word On The Street

  • “I think they’re going to stabilize in this general area, and then we’re going to have a significant move to the upside,” Barton Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP and whose flagship fund returned three times the industry average last year, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
  • In past intraday Crashes (a la 5/6’s “Flash Crash”) markets stabilize average 30 days later. It has been 21 days since the intraday decline of 9%. Since 1900, in the 6 prior instances of 9%-plus intraday crashes, markets tend to bottom by day 32. J.P. Morgan stock analyst Thomas Lee. WSJ.
  • “The best place to have your money is in either sound currencies or real assets. For my money, real assets are a better place to be because, throughout history, when governments have started printing a lot of money, the money has gone into real things – whether that’s silver, or cotton, or natural gas – something that’s real that people can use. Putting into paper money at a time when paper money is being debased all over the world is usually not a good thing to do.” Jim Rogers.

Notch One To The Bulls

We got our bounce. Now let’s wait a bit to see if it sticks, and if real buyers will show up.

The Dow and S&P 500 closed their strong Thursday rallies right at the resistance marks of their key 200-day moving averages.

The Nasdaq’s positioning just above the key average bodes well for a sustained rally, with its tech-heavy components often serving as leadership for bull runs. Same can be said for semiconductors (SMH), retail (XRT) and financials (XLF.)

But before we get ahead of ourselves let’s remember we’re sticking to our Sell Bias until we get a Follow Through Day (FTD), where beginning Monday we want to see at least one of the major averages post about a 2% rally on volume greater than the day before.

Reason we wait before going on FTD watch is to give time for shorts to clear, so as not to confuse it with real buying.

Thursday’s volume, lesser than Wednesday’s and just a little better than average, doesn’t give us much to go bullish on.

Nonetheless, broad-based participation across all sectors was strong, and certainly tilts to the Bulls favor.

Looking For ‘Real’ Buying

Another good whacking for the market. But buyers showed they can still move the ball as they erased most of the day’s losses with an afternoon rally.

This gives traders yet another look that the market might bounce.

That’s not to say we’re shifting the Sell Bias we’ve held steady for weeks. Far from it.

Should Tuesday’s low stick, we’ll begin looking for a Follow Through Day next week, where volume stronger than previous day’s accompanying at least one of the major indexes up about 2% would suggest institutions are on board for higher ground.

We wait at least four days to give shorts time to cover positions, so as not to confuse it with real buying.

As long as unrest over Europe’s solvency concerns persists we expect volatility to be the norm. Potential war in Korea also has the world on edge, as does BP’s fiasco in the Gulf… but it’s best to let the market do the talking and trade “what is” rather than “what should be.”

Positive closes Tuesday for the key sectors of semiconductors (SMH), financials (XLF) and retail (XRT) bode well for the bounce.

We’ve nibbled a bit on the Long side. We’ll need further confirmation to take larger positions.

Another weak bounce would set us up to enter shorts again.

Best,

Dan

thegrowthstockreport.com

Not Completely Tilted

Monday’s light-volume selling tells us little at this juncture.

Our Sell Bias remains intact as we continue to be on alert for a bounce as the major indexes flirt with key levels.

We’re going to consider Friday’s low pivotal until taken out. What the Bulls really want to see now is a high-volume rally with at least one of the major indexes up about 2%.

We’ve been bearish for weeks as Distribution Days, technical breakdowns from key sectors and genuine concern over Europe’s situation have all given consistent red flags.

The longer this theme endures, the more we look for evidence it will ease or end.

While the majority of S&P 100 stocks continue to trade in breakdown mode, there’s a good number in key support areas with potential to trigger a broad market bounce.

Add relative strength leadership from the likes of Campbell Soup (CPB), Heinz (HNZ), Altria (MO) and Sara Lee (SLE) and it’s not all completely tilted out there.

As for our beloved Growth Stocks, they’re still poised and ready to breakout from sound technical bases. But as long as the dominant selling environment persists we’re not expecting much on this front.

Should we enter a longer-term correction, these Growth Stocks too will succumb to a deterioration of their technical picture – but we’re not there yet.

Stay tuned,

Dan

thegrowthstockreport.com

Prospects of a Bounce

As long as uncertainty prevails over Europe’s solvency issues we’ll expect to see more volatility.

We’re maintaining our Sell Bias on stocks for lack of better technicals. Multiple Distribution Days, where sell-volume has out-paced buyers, has been been a consistent warning for the better part of a month now.

What was hoped by Bulls to be a trendline bounce during the “flash crash” two weeks ago is now being tested as the Dow and S&P 500 close below their 40-week moving averages for the first time in nearly a year.

Not one single stock sector posted a gain last week as the number of them trading under their major averages increased to about half.

The rapid deterioration has many speculators, including ourselves, on the lookout for a bounce of some sort from these levels, as corrections are notorious for.

Of particular interest are financial stocks (XLF), and most notably the Broker Dealers (IAI), which helped spur a broad market rally Friday after the finalization to Congress’s financial industry reform.

Whether or not the sector has what it takes to lead anything sustainable remains to be seen. The Broker Dealer Index ($XBD) shows a significant breakdown on its point-and-figure chart, which illustrates a significant move by filtering out the noise of random price-action.

Relative strength from the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ), S&P 400 midcaps (MDY) and Russell 2000 small caps (IWM), which unlike their parent indexes are all trading above their 40-day moving averages, also gives Bulls some evidence that not all is completely broken in their trend.

Similar resilience from Transportation (IYT), Semiconductors (SMH) and Retail (XRT), key components of sustainable broad market trends, are also encouraging.

Bounce or not, the prospects of more selling look most striking in a 15-year monthly chart of the Dow where the right side of a bearish head-and-shoulder pattern may be forming.

It’s never been our goal to predict the long-term trends. What we want is to correctly identify friendly or unfriendly conditions to buy or sell our beloved Growth Stocks.

While our overall bias prevents us from buying, there are still a number of solid looking companies poised to breakout of technical bases. No telling if they’ll get the bids needed or not.

Last week a clear flight to safety was seen with higher bids for Treasury bonds, one of the few gainers, as well as Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index (AGG), which hit a new high.

Technically Speaking

Upside: Potential bounce faces resistanceat 1100-ish, the 200-day moving average, then 1170-ish, the 50-day average. Recent highs from Consumer Goods companies, like Altria (MO), Sara Lee (SLE) and Hasbro (HAS), are potential leaders.
Downside: Breakdowns in healthcare stocks like Baxter (BAX), Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Amgen (AMGN) threaten to lead the S&P down to the support of its low for the year, the 1040-ish level.

Major Indexes – ETFs

Bias
Symbol
ETF
1-Week
4-Weeks
TLH
iShares Barclays 10 Year Treasury (9.4yr)
2%
6%
+
AGG
iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond (4.3yr)
1%
2%
+
BWX
SPDR Barcap Global Ex-U.S. Bond (6.5yr)
1%
-3%
+
BSV
Vanguard Short-Tm Bond Mix (2.6yr)
0%
1%
LQD
iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond (7.1yr)
0%
0%
SHY
Barclays Low Duration Treasury ETF (1.9yr)
0%
1%
SHV
Barclays Short-Term Treasury (0.4)
0%
0%
EMB
iShares JPM Emerg Markets Bond (7.0yr)
-2%
-3%
+
TIP
iShares Barclays TIPS (6.0yr)
0%
2%
+
DBA
DB Agricultural Commodities Index
0%
-4%
HYG
iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (4.2yr)
-2%
-5%
+
IEV
iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund
-3%
-15%
ACWI
iShares MSCI All-World ACWI Index
-4%
-13%
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE Index
-3%
-14%
DIA
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
-4%
-9%
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 Index
-4%
-10%
+
GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
-4%
2%
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
-4%
-14%
+
MDY
S&P MidCap 400 SPDRs
-5%
-12%
+
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
-6%
-12%
DBC
PowerShares DB Commodity Index
-5%
-12%
AAXJ
iShares MSCI Asia ex-Japan
-5%
-12%
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
-5%
-13%
ILF
iShares S&P Latin America
-6%
-15%
EPP
iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan
-7%
-17%

Sectors – ETFs

Symbol
Symbol
ETF
1-Week
4-Weeks
+
XLP
U.S. Consumer Staples Sector SPDR
-2%
-5%
+
IYZ
iShares Dow Jones Telecomm
-3%
-7%
+
XRT
Retail Industry SPDR
-3%
-8%
+
IGV
S&P Software Industry Index
-5%
-11%
SMH
Semiconductor HOLDRs
-2%
-11%
+
XLY
U.S. Consumer Discret Sector SPDR
-4%
-11%
XLK
U.S. Technology Sector SPDR
-4%
-11%
XLU
U.S. Utilities Sector SPDR
-4%
-7%
+
FDN
First Trust DJ Internet Index
-4%
11%
KCE
SPDR KBW Capital Markets
-4%
-12%
XLV
U.S. Health Care Sector SPDR
-4%
-8%
PPH
Pharmaceutical HOLDRs
-4%
-8%
XLB
U.S. Materials Sector SPDR
-4%
-13%
+
PPA
PowerShares Aerospace & Defense
-5%
-12%
+
IHI
DJ U.S. Medical Devices
-5%
-8%
+
IGN
iShares S&P U.S. Tech-Networking ETF
-5%
-11%
IBB
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index
-5%
-11%
XLF
U.S. Financial Sector SPDR
-4%
-12%
+
IYT
iShares Dow Jones Transports
-6%
-10%
+
XLI
U.S. Industrials Sector SPDR
-6%
-11%
KIE
SPDR KBW Insurance
-5%
-15%
XLE
U.S. Energy Sector SPDR
-6%
-15%
KRE
KBW Regional Bank Industry SPDR
-7%
-15%
IGE
iShares S&P N. Amer Nat. Resources
-6%
-14%
KBE
KBW Bank Industry Index SPDR
-6%
-13%
+
XHB
S&P Homebuilders SPDR
-7%
-15%
OIH
Oil Services HOLDR
-7%
-23%
XME
S&P Metals & Mining SPDR
-10%
-18%

Four-Week Volume Trend

Bias
Index
Major Accumultion
Minor Accumulation
Major Distribution
Minor Distribution
Dow
1
0
8
0
S&P 500
1
0
8
0
Nasdaq
1
0
7
0
Russell2000
1
1
6
1
Accumulation: index up with more volume than previous day. Distribution: index down with more volume than previous day. Major: > 60-day average, Minor: <.

News To Watch This Week

Earnings:

  • MONDAY – Campbell Soup (CPB), Guess (GES)
  • TUESDAY – Autozone Inc. (AZO), DSW Inc. (DSW), Stanley, Inc.
  • WEDNESDAY –American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO), Dress Barn (DBRN)
  • THURSDAY – Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ), J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG), Tiffany & Co. (TIF)
  • FRIDAY – Quality Systems (QSII)

Economic:

  • MONDAY – Existing Home Sales
  • TUESDAY – -Shiller 20-city Index, Consumer Confidence
  • WEDNESDAY – Durable Orders, New Home Sales, Crude Inventories
  • THURSDAY – Initial Claims , Continuing Claims, GDP – Second Estimate, GDP Deflator – Second Estimate
  • FRIDAY – Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Prices – Core, Chicago PMI, U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Word On The Street

– “It always sounds more than a bit stupid and alarmist to predict a crash, but I did it in 2007 and nailed it. I am going to it again now. Raoul Paul, The Global Macro Investor newsletter.

– “The world should be discussing deflation, not inflation. The world should be discussing buying 30-yr. government bonds, not continually wondering like a stuck record where the first rate hike will appear. RBS’s European Rates Strategy team on what it calls Great Depression II.

– “We are in uncharted waters on account of several issues, including what is going on in Europe and other important structural regime changes. In economic terms, European developments are unambiguously bad for global growth.” Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.


This Week’s Word On Discipline

“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.” – Aristotle


Grizzly

A major whacking of shares across the board Thursday brings crash anxiety back.

Three Distribution Days in a row for the major indexes tells us institutions have been unloading.

With uncertainty in Europe, and an overdue correction from a year ago March’s low, it’s not hard to imagine fund managers wanting to lock-in gains and/or have cash on hand.

No telling where the carnage stops. The S&P 500 is just a touch away from taking out a low made two weeks ago during the “flash crash.”

We’re happy to say we’ve had a Sell Bias for about a month now. We’re using the correction as a litmus test to separate strength from weakness, giving us a better measure of what’s best to buy when the bull returns.

Looking at S&P 100 stocks, only Mastercard posted a gain today, up 1.5% as it bounces off a low for the year. The company benefited from the “failure of an amendment that would have allowed caps on credit card interest rates,” according to the Associated Press.

Elsewhere, it was breakdown city as stocks face the various support levels of their 50 and 200-day moving averages.

We’ll take a more comprehensive look at this, and the state of our beloved Growth Stocks, in our weekly market analysis.

Dan

thegrowthstockreport.com

Outlook For Growth Stocks

The Growth Stock Report

Market Bias

Seler’s Edge

The Growth Stock Landscape

An overall bearish tone in the market has us more focussed on the brakes rather than the accelerator.

Multiple Distribution days across the major indexes in the last couple of weeks has warned us very clearly.

Odds are the major indexes will continue trading under their 50-day moving averages as long as the selling volume dominates.

But as always, we’re alert for anything. Bear legs are notorious for sharp u-turns. Heavy selling Wednesday was followed by strong buying into the close, and it’s often the smart money that ends sessions.

We’ve been on the lookout for a high-volume rally with at least one of the indexes powering about 2% higher in a session. Without this type of follow through any rally we might get will be suspect – at least that’s what history tells us.

As many stocks break down across the market, we still see some top-quality names setting up to breakout of technical bases. While none meet our strict Matrix criteria of stellar back-to-back improving quarters, we have a number of solid growers we deem “A” grade.

The success of these breakouts will be telling of others looking to do the same. We’re not aggressive buyers just yet.

Setting up or breaking out are:

Alamo Group (AG)

Affymax Inc. (AFFY)

Ulta Salon (ULTA)

K12 Inc. (LRN)

Maidenform Brands (MFB)

Amerigroup Corp. (AGP)

Hasbro Inc. (HAS)

Patni Computer Systems (PTI)

American Greetings (AM)

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

On the short side, we like the look of the following trading below their major moving averages and raised volatility:

Overseas Shipholding (OSG)

Comstock Resources (CRK)

Wellcare Health Plans (WCG)

Unit Corp. (UNT)

Terex Corp. (TEX)

Intrepid Potash (IPI)

Quicksilver Resources (KWK)

Digital River Inc. (DRIV)

Affymetrix (AFFX)

Barnes & Noble (BKS)

Just to keep a finger in the market, we’ve nibbled a bit on Affymax (AFFY), as increased volume hints to a breakout, and Hi-Tech Pharmacal(HITK), which has also seen a volume boost and threatens to reverse a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. We love it when these patterns fail and test the faith of technical analysis geeks.

AFFY and HITK are not full positions for us. We have small profit targets, of 5% to 10%, assuming market conditions remain. They’re listed in the Special Situation section below.

Remember, certified buy signals for Growth Stocks come with moves through buy-points on high-volume.

Our one full short position is in Terex Corp. (TEX).

Here’s A Run Down On Our Open Positions:

Box Score

LONGS

Symbol
Buy- Point
Last
-8% Stop
-5% Stop
-2% Stop
10% Target
20% Target

100% Target

none

SHORTS

Symbol
Sell-Point
Last
-5% Stop
-2% Stop
10% Target
20% Target
TEX
23.50
22.15
24.68
23.97
21.15
18.80

SPECIAL SITUATION

Symbol
Bought @
Last
-8% Stop
-5% Stop
-2% Stop
10% Target
20% Target

100% Target

AFFY
25.35
25.37
23.32
24.08
24.84
27.89
30.42
50.70
HITK
24

24.06

22.08 22.80
23.52
26.40
28.80
48

*Bold Marks Hit

Terex Corp. (TEX)our short position got some downside fuel via heavy sell-volume under its 50-day average, though has its 200-day as support.

DISCLAIMER: We may own the stocks discussed here. Data used here is accurate to the best of our knowledge, though may be subject to error. Trading in stocks can result in losses, which in some cases may total more than invested. Prudent money management involves only risking money you can afford to lose!

Tug-of-War

Another round of Distribution on the Dow and S&P 500 for Tuesday reinforces our Sell Bias.

Next stop to the downside for the indexes appears to be the 200-day moving averages, beyond that, the lows made two weeks ago during the “flash crash.”

We’ve been on the watch for a breakdown on the Broker Dealer Index ($XBD), which is on the verge of falling below a nearly yearlong trading range.

Any high volume move with a close below this range won’t bode well for the rest of the market as Broker Dealers have historically served as part of the backbone  to broader trends.

Heavy selling in shares of Semiconductor companies is also weighing to the Bears advantage.

Though not all is broken, yet,  as the Semiconductor Index ($SOX) and Retail Index ($RLX), two other key components of the broader market trend, trade above their 200-day moving averages.

As these sectors play out their tug-of-war we see similar split personalities with individual stocks in the S&P 100, with some holding new highs and others breaking down.

Bulls can take confidence with recent highs from Hasbro (HAS), Altria (MO), Pepsico (PEP) and Sara Lee (SLE). For Bears, it’s the breakdowns of MasterCard (MA), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Monsanto (MON) that endorse their forecasts.

What The Bulls Need To See

Monday’s U-turn rally on the major indexes has the look of potential exhaustion of selling pressure, but not quite the feel.

As the indexes reversed losses to close the day with slight gains it’s likely to have short sellers nervous.

What the Bulls want to see now is dominant buy-volume set in.

Monday’s volume, which was lighter than Friday’s, didn’t quite qualify as Accumulation. The NYSE and AMEX exchanges showed the seller’s were in charge, while the Nasdaq favored buyers.

Rather than look too much into one day’s action we’re going to wait before making any strong analytical judgements.

To the Bull’s cause, recent breakouts from Sara Lee (SLE), Pepsico, (PEP), Altria (MO) and Hasbro (HAS) are holding strong above their 50-day moving averages.

Growth Stock breakouts on Akamai (AKAM), Affymax (AFFY) and Maidenform Brands (MFB) are also sticking. Success here will open path for others.

A key ingredient for bull market

GSRTrades Weekly Market Report

Market Bias
Seller’s Edge

Where We Are

Friday’s heavy selling confirms our bearish bias.

The major indexes sold off after testing their 50-day moving averages to the upside.

Modest gains for the week show some improvement for the Bulls after the “flash crash.”

But for us to become Bulls, we’d have to see the averages regain footing above their 50-day moving averages. It would also be encouraging to see it happen with the endorsement of a 2% rally on strong volume for a Follow Through Day.

Volume over the last month has clearly favored the sellers, as multiple Distribution Days, where volume on a down day exceeds the previous day, indicates institutions have been unloading.

It’s the selling volume, not price trend, which kept us bearish of late.

In the bigger picture, the trend is still clearly up as the major indexes travel above their long-term 40-week moving averages.

Any test below these averages would likely start with a breakdown of a sector to lead that action. Sectors already below this mark include Commodities, Broker Dealers, Drugs and Energy.

The Broker Dealers are especially important to keep an eye on for their tight relationship to consumer sentiment and the health of the economy. Last week the ($XBD) tested the bottom of a yearlong trading range. Any breakdown would be significant.

Another pace setter, the Semiconductors ($SOX), would also disrupt a strong upward trend that has formed over the last year.

News wise, next week many key retailers are set to announce earnings, which will likely set a tone for trading.

Last week, the market saw a handful of breakouts from Consumer Goods stocks like Hasbro (HAS), Altria (MO), Pepsico (PEP) and Sara Lee (SLE).

Should the breakouts hold, they may become market leaders, a key ingredient for a sustainable bull market.

It would be even more encouraging to see technology names follow suit, as IBM (IBM) appears poised to do so.

Growth stocks launching from technical bases included Affymax (AFFY) and Maidenform Brands (MFB.)

The success of these stocks will be telling of similar ones ready to do the same.

Technically Speaking

MAJOR INDEX BIAS & PERFORMANCE FOR WEEK
BIAS
Index
Chg.

% Action
+ DJIA +240 +2.31% Sells off after hitting 50-day MA
+

Nasdaq

+81 +3.58% Sells off after hitting 50-day MA

+

S&P 500 +25 +2.23% Sells off after hitting 50-day MA
+ Russ 2K +41 +6.28% Closes just under 50-day MA
or = Above or Below 40-week exponential moving average. + = 50-day SMA is above the 200-day MA

FOUR-WEEK VOLUME INDICATOR


Accumulation

Distribution


BIAS Index Major
Minor
Major Minor

DJIA 2 0 5
0

Nasdaq 3 0 4 0

S&P 500 1 0 6 0

Russ 2K 2 0 4 1
Accumulation: index up with more volume than previous day. Distribution: index down with more volume than previous day. Major: > 60-day average, Minor: <.

SECTOR TREND BIAS & PERFORMANCE FOR WEEK
BIAS Sector % Action
+ U.S. Dollar, $USD +1.94% New 52-wk High
+ Gold & Silver Miners, $XAU +3.99% Breaks out of 5-month base
+
Commodities, $DJAIG -0.64% Sells under major MAs

+

Consumers, $CMR +1.79% Sells off after hitting 50-day MA
+ Cyclicals, $CYC +4.38% Sells off after hitting 50-day MA
+ Technology, $DJUSTC +3.47% Sells off after hitting 50-day MA
+ Semiconductors, $SOX +2.05% Sells off after hitting 50-day MA
+ Software, $GSO +7.97% Closes on 50-day MA
+

Telecoms, $XTC +4.09% Sells off after hitting 50-day MA
+ Banks, $BKX +3.06% Closes just under 50-day MA
+ Broker Dealers, $XBD +1.52% Sells off after hitting 200-day MA
+ Retail, $RLX +2.61% Closes just under 50-day MA
+
Healthcare, $HCX +0.68% Sells off after hitting 200-day MA

+

Biotechnology, $BKX +3.65% Waivers between major MAs
+
Pharmaceutical, $DRG -0.20% Little changed under major MAs
+ REITs, $DJR +3.57% Holds above major MAs
+ Homebuilders, $DJUSHB +1.67% Holds above 200-day MA
+ Transportation, $TRAN +4.41% Holds above 50-day MA
+ Airlines, $XAL +8.23% Closes just under 50-day MA
+ Defense, $DFX +3.03% Closes just under 50-day MA
+
Energy Index, $IXE +2.03% Closes just under 200-day MA
or = Above or Below 40-week exponential moving average. + = 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA

News To Watch This Week

Earnings:

  • MONDAY – Agilent Technologies Inc. (A), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD)
  • TUESDAY – Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Home Depot Inc (HD), The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)
  • WEDNESDAY – Applied Materials (AMAT), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ), Deere & Company (DE), Gymboree (GYMB), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), Hot Topic (HOTT), Limited Brands (LTD), PetSmart (PETM), Target Corporation (TGT)
  • THURSDAY – Dell, Inc. (DELL), Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST), Staples, Inc. (SPLS), Stein Mart, Inc. (SMRT), The Buckle (BKE), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ)
  • FRIDAY – AnnTaylor Stores (ANN), Gap Inc. (GPS)

Economic:

  • MONDAY – Net Long-Term TIC Flows
  • TUESDAY – Building Permits, PPI, Housing Starts,
  • WEDNESDAY – CPI, Crude Inventories
  • THURSDAY – Continuing Claims, Initial Claims, Leading Indicators, Philadelphia Fed
  • FRIDAY – none


This Week’s Word On Discipline

“What it lies in our power to do, it lies in our power not do.” — Aristotle

This Market Report is our broad analysis that is the foundation for our Growth Stock Report that highlights opportunities in individual stocks.